Price Validation Framework
Multiple validation approaches support the $449,000 list price—a 49.7% increase from the 2020 purchase, justified by the factors below.
1. Market Appreciation (2020–2026)
Oak Grove Avg Price/Acre
$351,003
Current LandSearch average
Christian Co. Market/SF
$126/SF
CoStar 12-mo average
Sale Volume Growth
72.5%
YOY increase
Tourism Growth
+$1.9M
Christian County 2023
Key Driver: Oak Grove Racing & Gaming
The $200M Churchill Downs/Keeneland facility opened after the 2020 purchase. The casino generates $196M+ annually and has fundamentally changed land values in the immediate vicinity.
2. Comparable Land Sales
| Address |
Date |
Acres |
Price |
$/Acre |
| 4000 Fort Campbell Blvd |
Dec 2024 |
1.65 |
$400K |
$242,424 |
| US Highway 41, Oak Grove |
Apr 2024 |
4.43 |
$350K |
$79,006 |
| 0 Ft Campbell Blvd |
Jul 2024 |
13.00 |
$850K |
$65,385 |
| Dawson Springs Rd |
Dec 2025 |
14.00 |
$640K |
$45,714 |
| SUBJECT |
— |
0.55 |
$449K |
$816,364 |
3. Adjustment Analysis
| Factor |
4000 FC |
US 41 |
0 FC |
Dawson |
| Base $/Acre |
$242K |
$79K |
$65K |
$46K |
| Casino Adjacency |
+75% |
+150% |
+200% |
+300% |
| Traffic (41,591 ADT) |
+25% |
+50% |
+40% |
+75% |
| Size Premium |
+20% |
+35% |
+50% |
+60% |
| Development Ready |
+15% |
+25% |
+30% |
+40% |
| Adjusted $/Acre |
$824K |
$759K |
$883K |
$857K |
Adjusted Average: $830,783/Acre
The recommended price of $816,364/acre falls within the adjusted range of $759K–$883K/acre.
4. Premium Location Factors
Oak Grove Racing & Gaming
$200M+
Directly adjacent
Fort Campbell
40,000
Personnel & visitors
3-Mile Population
34,730
$60,789 avg income
10-Mile Population
160,208
Clarksville metro